Question about the 2020 National Show

[Tina]

That will be up to the board of trustees, if the government puts in a size restriction re people meeting for events I guess it will be cancelled. The arena is booked three years in advance so
It would not be easy to re arrange.

[el48tel]

That will be up to the board of trustees, if the government puts in a size restriction re people meeting for events I guess it will be cancelled. The arena is booked three years in advance so
It would not be easy to re arrange.

That .... is exactly my point

[davidfair]

The current estimate for death rates in 70-79 y olds getting the Covid19 is 8%. I guess the average age of people showing cacti is over 70. So there are two scenarios for how things will look in July 2020:
1. The population has pretty much much been fully saturated by exposure to Covid 19 and 8% or so of those who would have shown plants are no longer with us.
2. The government's plans to slow the spread of virus have worked in which case the Show will either be cancelled by martial law, or if it is still allowed to occur a large number of cactus enthusiasts who haven't yet caught the virus will be voluntarily self-isolating.
I'm thinking that 2020 is going to be a write-off for a lot of things. I hope I'm wrong.
David

[Acid John]

What age do you have to reach before you stop worrying that everything is going to kill you? Just asking for a friend

[ragamala]

So there are two scenarios for how things will look in July 2020:

What age do you have to reach before you stop worrying that everything is going to kill you? Just asking for a friend

According to media reports the government is planning banning over-70s from attending large gatherings, which gives you, David, scenario 3. On the face of it, this might kill off the show. Alternatively push up the marshalling costs as stewards check photo ID of everybody with grey hairs. I expect a rush on hair dye.

More seriously, it seems the government health advisers are working on a mid-figure of around 100,000 deaths from coronavirus.

To answer the question Acid J - equally seriously - I am over 70 but still looking forward to enjoying quite a few more years of healthy life. Like perhaps most people, I don't want these chopped off by some additional threat to my health, especially if an inadequate government response is adding to my vulnerability.

[el48tel]

I think, Ragamala, you have made an extremely valid point .... not wanting to be deprived of time by the (mis)calculations of a team of civil servants. What is the collective noun for that cohort?
I thank David Fair for his sharing of the latest medical thinking, again this is not fact because daily we are being given information about cases of infection which do not fit the previous patterns.
I too was looking forward to a prestigious event, but I think the inevitable will be upon us too soon.

[Stuart]

Collective noun for civil servants, a 'wunch', similar to the one for bankers. If we exclude Daily Mail readers, there must be some optimism somewhere on the Forum mustn't there?
Stuart

[el48tel]

Collective noun for civil servants, a 'wunch', similar to the one for bankers. If we exclude Daily Mail readers, there must be some optimism somewhere on the Forum mustn't there?
Stuart

Stuart,
Good word (although I had to Google its origin). I was thinking similarly, but slightly more politely, but definitely prefer your offering.

[Stuart]

And to think I was a Civil Servant for ten years before I escaped to the exciting world of cacti. The occupation 'Government Service' used to look good on a passport though!
Stuart

[el48tel]

And to think I was a Civil Servant for ten years before I escaped to the exciting world of cacti. The occupation 'Government Service' used to look good on a passport though!
Stuart

Sanity ruled OK